Aaron McDonald vs Romário Jaguar
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
4-4-0Record4-1-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'11"Height5'10"
-ReachTBD
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
What's at stake
Romário Jaguar is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +20 while a loss costs more — Aaron McDonald carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+28→ 1534
If they lose-20→ 1486
If they win+20→ 1583
If they lose-28→ 1535
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1488 · 8 fightsPre-fight Elo1497 · 5 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Aaron McDonaldRomário Jaguar
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Romário Jaguar64%
Aaron McDonald 36%Elo baseline: 58%
The Combat Edge model makes Romário Jaguar a 64% favorite over Aaron McDonald in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (58%).
Romário Jaguar holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1563 to 1506, a 57-point edge.
Aaron McDonald enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Aaron McDonald finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Romário Jaguar 50%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.