UAE WARRIORS 73 ESTORIL : JAGUAR VS MCDONALD

Romário Jaguar vs Aaron McDonald

Oct 5, 2026 · UFC Fight Pass

Pick'em vs the modelWho wins this fight?Make your pick

DateOct 5, 2026

DivisionLightweight

StatusScheduled

VenueCasino Estoril

BroadcastUFC Fight Pass

Start times & how to watch

Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Monday, October 5, 2026 — watch on UFC Fight Pass.

US East (ET): Mon 1:00 PM
US West (PT): Mon 10:00 AM
United Kingdom: Mon 6:00 PM
Central Europe: Mon 7:00 PM
Australia (Sydney): Tue 4:00 AM
Your time

Romário Jaguar4-1-0Romário Jaguar vs Aaron McDonaldAaron McDonaldMacavelli |4-4-0

Romário Jaguar4-1-0

Fight Overview

RoundTBD

TimeTBD

4-1-0Record4-4-0

TBDAge30

5'10"Height5'11"

TBDReachTBD

155 lbsWeight155 lbs

LightweightWeight ClassLightweight

Aaron McDonaldMacavelli4-4-0

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Romário Jaguar owns a 57-point Elo edge (solid). Tracked UFC stat edges are limited for this matchup. There are no clean shared-opponent matches in tracked pro MMA history.

Compare Romário Jaguar and Aaron McDonald across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Romário JaguarAaron McDonald

Recent form

Romário JaguarL W W W W · +63 Elo last 5

LWWWW

Aaron McDonaldW W L W L · +26 Elo last 5

WWLWL

Elo edge

Romário Jaguar1563-30 last move

Aaron McDonald1506+24 last move

Why they are ranked here

Romário Jaguar#304 of 386 active Lightweight fighters · 1563 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Rafael Santos (rated 1500 at the time): +29.
Costliest loss: Lost to Joakim Jankovic (rated 1506 at the time): -30.
Last 5 fights: 4 wins, 1 loss, +63 Elo in total.
Next places: 1 point behind #303 Biaggio Ali Walsh, 2 ahead of #305 Kacper Cholewa.

Aaron McDonald#363 of 386 active Lightweight fighters · 1506 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Marco Di Liddo (rated 1500 at the time): +33.
Costliest loss: Lost to Ivan Klevets (rated 1447 at the time): -32.
Last 5 fights: 3 wins, 2 losses, +26 Elo in total.
Next places: 2 points behind #362 Simone Patrizi, 0 ahead of #364 Jesus Ru.

Every rated fight moves a rating by an amount set by the opponent's rating at the time, the result and how it ended. Places are counted among fighters active in the last 24 months. How the rating is calculated

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

What's at stake

Romário JaguarNow 1563 · #304 Lightweight

Wins by decision+20→ 1583

Loses by decision-28→ 1535

Aaron McDonaldNow 1506 · #363 Lightweight

Wins by decision+28→ 1534

Loses by decision-20→ 1486

What-if simulatorPremium

Pick the winner and how the fight ends to see both new ratings, both new division ranks, and who each fighter would pass.

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Projected with the same rules as the rankings, at today's ratings. Split decisions move ratings less and finishes more.

Stat advantages

Romário JaguarvsAaron McDonald

No tracked UFC stat edge yet.

Finishing profile

Romário Jaguardecision leads 50% of wins

Aaron McDonalddecision leads 50% of wins

Common opponents

No clean shared-opponent match found in tracked pro MMA history.

Tale of the tape

Romário JaguarAaron McDonald

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

Not availableSig. strikes landed per minNot available

UFC lightweight average : 3.81

Not availableSig. strike accuracyNot available

UFC lightweight average : 46%

Not availableSig. strikes absorbed per minNot available

UFC lightweight average : 3.91

Not availableSig. strike defenseNot available

UFC lightweight average : 53%

Not availableTakedown averageNot available

UFC lightweight average : 1.69

Not availableTakedown accuracyNot available

UFC lightweight average : 28%

Not availableTakedown defenseNot available

UFC lightweight average : 59%

Not availableSubmission averageNot available

UFC lightweight average : 0.50

1Wins by knockout1

1Wins by submission1

2Wins by decision2

0Losses by knockout1

0Losses by submission1

1Losses by decision1

Romário Jaguar vs Aaron McDonald is a scheduled Lightweight fight on UAE WARRIORS 73 ESTORIL : JAGUAR VS MCDONALD. Romário Jaguar enters with a 4-1-0 record and Aaron McDonald enters with a 4-4-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.