Combat Edge Intelligence

Aaron Pico vs Chepe Mariscal

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →

Tale of the tape

14-5-0Record18-7-0
LightweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'8"Height5'6"
70"Reach69″
155 lbsWeight145 lbs
Jackson-Wink MMATeamElevation Fight Team

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Aaron PicoNow 1699
If they win+16→ 1715
If they lose-16→ 1683
Chepe MariscalNow 1700
If they win+12→ 1712
If they lose-12→ 1688

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1643 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1620 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

6.16
Sig. strikes / min
4.95
54%
Strike accuracy
56%
3.11
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.07
45%
Strike defense
52%
6.54
Takedown avg.
2.85
50%
Takedown accuracy
39%
0%
Takedown defense
73%
0
Submission avg.
0.22

Trajectory

Aaron PicoChepe Mariscal
16501700202420252026

Win method breakdown

9 (64%)
KO/TKO
7 (39%)
2 (14%)
Submission
3 (17%)
3 (21%)
Decision
8 (44%)

Combat Edge model read

Aaron Pico60%
Chepe Mariscal 40%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Aaron Pico a 60% favorite over Chepe Mariscal in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Chepe Mariscal's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1699 vs 1700), separated by just 1 points.

Aaron Pico finishes 79% of wins inside the distance, Chepe Mariscal 56%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.