Aaron Pico vs Patricio Pitbull
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
14-5-0Record37-9-0
LightweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'8"Height5'6"
70"Reach65"
155 lbsWeight145 lbs
Jackson-Wink MMATeamPitbull Brothers
What's at stake
Patricio Pitbull is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Aaron Pico carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+19→ 1718
If they lose-13→ 1686
If they win+9→ 1783
If they lose-15→ 1759
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1643 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1697 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Aaron PicoPatricio Pitbull
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Aaron Pico52%
Patricio Pitbull 48%Elo baseline: 39%
The Combat Edge model makes Aaron Pico a 52% favorite over Patricio Pitbull in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Patricio Pitbull's way (39%).
Patricio Pitbull holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1774 to 1699, a 75-point edge.
Aaron Pico finishes 79% of wins inside the distance, Patricio Pitbull 65%.
Aaron Pico and Patricio Pitbull share 1 common opponent: Jeremy Kennedy.
Aaron Pico carries a 5-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.