Combat Edge Intelligence

Aaron Rosa vs Luke Fernandez

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

18-7-0Record6-1-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'3"Height6'2"
TBDReach76"
205 lbsWeight205 lbs
Rodrigo Pinheiro Brazilian Jiu-JitsuTeamDante Rivera BJJ

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Aaron RosaNow 1611
If they win+12→ 1623
If they lose-12→ 1599
Luke FernandezNow 1612
If they win+24→ 1636
If they lose-24→ 1588

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1558 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1525 · 7 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.03
Sig. strikes / min
32
47%
Strike accuracy
100%
4.41
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
0
45%
Strike defense
100%
0.36
Takedown avg.
0
33%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
86%
Takedown defense
0%
0.36
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Aaron RosaLuke Fernandez
1550160016502023202420252026

Win method breakdown

6 (33%)
KO/TKO
5 (83%)
4 (22%)
Submission
0 (0%)
8 (44%)
Decision
1 (17%)

Combat Edge model read

Luke Fernandez71%
Aaron Rosa 29%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Luke Fernandez a 71% favorite over Aaron Rosa in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1611 vs 1612), separated by just 1 points.

Aaron Rosa enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Aaron Rosa finishes 56% of wins inside the distance, Luke Fernandez 83%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.