Aaron Tau vs Lone’er Kavanagh
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Lone’er Kavanagh
Elo1670GoodTale of the tape
11-1-0Record10-2-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'4"Height5'4"
66"Reach67"
126 lbsWeight126 lbs
City KickboxingTeamGreat Britain Top Team
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1686
If they lose-16→ 1654
If they win+16→ 1686
If they lose-16→ 1654
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1496 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1595 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Aaron TauLone’er Kavanagh
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Lone’er Kavanagh60%
Aaron Tau 40%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Lone’er Kavanagh a 60% favorite over Aaron Tau in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Aaron Tau's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1670 vs 1670), separated by just 0 points.
Aaron Tau enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Aaron Tau finishes 73% of wins inside the distance, Lone’er Kavanagh 50%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.