Abdul-Rakhman Dzhanaev vs Lucas Fernando
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
20-6-0Record14-3-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'0"Height6'3"
-Reach81.5"
187 lbsWeight185 lbs
Fight Club Akhmat· 1683 avg Elo · 20 ratedTeamRefit Pro Fighters
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1701
If they lose-12→ 1677
If they win+16→ 1703
If they lose-16→ 1671
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1619 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1534 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Abdul-Rakhman DzhanaevLucas Fernando
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Lucas Fernando72%
Abdul-Rakhman Dzhanaev 28%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Lucas Fernando a 72% favorite over Abdul-Rakhman Dzhanaev in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Abdul-Rakhman Dzhanaev's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1689 vs 1687), separated by just 2 points.
Lucas Fernando enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Abdul-Rakhman Dzhanaev finishes 40% of wins inside the distance, Lucas Fernando 71%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.