Abe Alsaghir vs Fabrizio Escarrega
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
8-0-0Record9-1-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height6'1"
72" Reach-
155 lbsWeight156 lbs
TBDTeamVictory Fight Club
What's at stake
Abe Alsaghir is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +23 while a loss costs more — Fabrizio Escarrega carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+23→ 1689
If they lose-25→ 1641
If they win+17→ 1666
If they lose-15→ 1634
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1483 · 8 fightsPre-fight Elo1488 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Abe AlsaghirFabrizio Escarrega
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Fabrizio Escarrega59%
Abe Alsaghir 41%Elo baseline: 48%
The Combat Edge model makes Fabrizio Escarrega a 59% favorite over Abe Alsaghir in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Abe Alsaghir's way (48%).
Abe Alsaghir holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1666 to 1649, a 17-point edge.
Abe Alsaghir enters on a 8-fight win streak.
Fabrizio Escarrega enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Abe Alsaghir finishes 88% of wins inside the distance, Fabrizio Escarrega 89%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.