Abraham Bably vs Arbi Aguev
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
8-4-0Record34-13-0
HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
5'10"Height6'0"
74"Reach-
242 lbsWeight206 lbs
Manchester Top TeamTeamMMA Vienna
What's at stake
Arbi Aguev is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Abraham Bably carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+17→ 1626
If they lose-15→ 1594
If they win+11→ 1640
If they lose-13→ 1616
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1566 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1539 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Abraham BablyArbi Aguev
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Abraham Bably62%
Arbi Aguev 38%Elo baseline: 47%
The Combat Edge model makes Abraham Bably a 62% favorite over Arbi Aguev in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Arbi Aguev's way (47%).
Arbi Aguev holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1629 to 1609, a 20-point edge.
Abraham Bably enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Arbi Aguev enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Abraham Bably finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Arbi Aguev 70%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.