Abraham Bably vs Raffael Cerqueira
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
8-3-0Record11-4-0
HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
5'10"Height6'3"
74"Reach76"
242 lbsWeight205 lbs
Manchester Top TeamTeamCTJ Judo & Jiu-Jitsu
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1641
If they lose-16→ 1609
If they win+16→ 1644
If they lose-16→ 1612
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1558 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1554 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Abraham BablyRaffael Cerqueira
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Abraham Bably62%
Raffael Cerqueira 38%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Abraham Bably a 62% favorite over Raffael Cerqueira in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Raffael Cerqueira's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1625 vs 1628), separated by just 3 points.
Raffael Cerqueira enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Abraham Bably finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Raffael Cerqueira 91%.
Raffael Cerqueira carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.