Abraham Bably vs Raffael Cerqueira
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
8-4-0Record11-4-0
HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
5'10"Height6'3"
74"Reach76"
242 lbsWeight205 lbs
Manchester Top TeamTeamCTJ Judo & Jiu-Jitsu
What's at stake
Raffael Cerqueira is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Abraham Bably carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+17→ 1626
If they lose-15→ 1594
If they win+15→ 1644
If they lose-17→ 1612
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1566 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1554 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Abraham BablyRaffael Cerqueira
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Abraham Bably66%
Raffael Cerqueira 34%Elo baseline: 47%
The Combat Edge model makes Abraham Bably a 66% favorite over Raffael Cerqueira in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Raffael Cerqueira's way (47%).
Raffael Cerqueira holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1629 to 1609, a 20-point edge.
Abraham Bably enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Raffael Cerqueira enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Abraham Bably finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Raffael Cerqueira 91%.
Raffael Cerqueira carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.