Abubakar Vagaev vs Colby Covington
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
25-4-0Record17-5-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height5'11"
-Reach72"
171 lbsWeight170 lbs
Fight Club Akhmat· 1681 avg Elo · 29 ratedTeamMMA Masters
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1781
If they lose-12→ 1757
If they win+16→ 1781
If they lose-16→ 1749
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1657 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1776 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Abubakar VagaevColby Covington
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Abubakar Vagaev55%
Colby Covington 45%Elo baseline: 51%
The Combat Edge model makes Abubakar Vagaev a 55% favorite over Colby Covington in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1769 vs 1765), separated by just 4 points.
Abubakar Vagaev enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Colby Covington enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Abubakar Vagaev finishes 20% of wins inside the distance, Colby Covington 47%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.