Abubakar Vagaev vs Lorenz Larkin
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
25-4-0Record27-8-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height5'11"
-Reach73"
171 lbsWeight170 lbs
Fight Club Akhmat· 1681 avg Elo · 29 ratedTeamMillennia MMA
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1781
If they lose-12→ 1757
If they win+12→ 1778
If they lose-12→ 1754
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1657 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1639 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Abubakar VagaevLorenz Larkin
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Abubakar Vagaev73%
Lorenz Larkin 27%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Abubakar Vagaev a 73% favorite over Lorenz Larkin in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1769 vs 1766), separated by just 3 points.
Abubakar Vagaev enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Lorenz Larkin enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Abubakar Vagaev finishes 20% of wins inside the distance, Lorenz Larkin 56%.
Abubakar Vagaev and Lorenz Larkin share 1 common opponent: Fernando Gonzalez.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.