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Combat Edge Intelligence

Adam Assenza vs Shane Mistretta

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Official bout pages

New comparison

This page compares both fighters across their careers. Event-specific previews, results, round stats, and bout facts live on the separate official Fight page for each meeting.

Tale of the tape

19-10-1Record5-4-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'7"HeightTBD
TBDReachTBD
155 lbsWeight169 lbs
Burlington Training CentreTeam

What's at stake

Adam Assenza is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Shane Mistretta carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Adam AssenzaNow 1591
If they win+9→ 1600
If they lose-15→ 1576
Shane MistrettaNow 1504
If they win+20→ 1524
If they lose-12→ 1492

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1503 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1502 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

Not available
Sig. strikes / min
Not available
Not available
Strike accuracy
Not available
Not available
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
Not available
Not available
Strike defense
Not available
Not available
Takedown avg.
Not available
Not available
Takedown accuracy
Not available
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Takedown defense
Not available
Not available
Submission avg.
Not available

Trajectory

Adam AssenzaShane Mistretta
1500155016001650202420252026

Win method breakdown

11 (58%)
KO/TKO
2 (40%)
0 (0%)
Submission
3 (60%)
8 (42%)
Decision
0 (0%)

Combat Edge model read

Adam Assenza55%
Shane Mistretta 45%Elo baseline: 62%

The Combat Edge model makes Adam Assenza a 55% favorite over Shane Mistretta in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (62%).

Adam Assenza holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1591 to 1504, a 87-point edge.

Adam Assenza finishes 58% of wins inside the distance, Shane Mistretta 100%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.