Adam Milstead vs Curtis Blaydes
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
8-3-0Record19-6-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'3"Height6'4"
76,0"Reach80"
205 lbsWeight256 lbs
Pittsburgh Fight ClubTeamElevation Fight Team
What's at stake
Curtis Blaydes is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +7 while a loss costs more — Adam Milstead carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+22→ 1652
If they lose-10→ 1620
If they win+7→ 1775
If they lose-17→ 1751
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1548 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1737 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Adam MilsteadCurtis Blaydes
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Curtis Blaydes84%
Adam Milstead 16%Elo baseline: 69%
The Combat Edge model makes Curtis Blaydes a 84% favorite over Adam Milstead in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (69%).
Curtis Blaydes holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1768 to 1630, a 138-point edge.
Adam Milstead enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Adam Milstead finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Curtis Blaydes 68%.
Curtis Blaydes carries a 4-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.