Adam Milstead vs Jordan Johnson
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
8-3-0Record12-2-1
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'3"Height6'2"
76,0"Reach41,0"
205 lbsWeight205 lbs
Pittsburgh Fight ClubTeamMMA Lab
What's at stake
Jordan Johnson is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +13 while a loss costs more — Adam Milstead carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+19→ 1649
If they lose-13→ 1617
If they win+13→ 1716
If they lose-19→ 1684
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1548 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1630 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Adam MilsteadJordan Johnson
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Jordan Johnson75%
Adam Milstead 25%Elo baseline: 60%
The Combat Edge model makes Jordan Johnson a 75% favorite over Adam Milstead in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (60%).
Jordan Johnson holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1703 to 1630, a 73-point edge.
Adam Milstead enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Adam Milstead finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Jordan Johnson 50%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.