Adam Milstead vs Mike Rodriguez
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
8-3-0Record12-7-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'3"Height6'3"
76,0"Reach82,5"
205 lbsWeight205 lbs
Pittsburgh Fight ClubTeamLauzon MMA
What's at stake
Adam Milstead is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Mike Rodriguez carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1644
If they lose-18→ 1612
If they win+18→ 1611
If they lose-14→ 1579
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1548 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1602 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Adam MilsteadMike Rodriguez
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Adam Milstead53%
Mike Rodriguez 47%Elo baseline: 55%
The Combat Edge model makes Adam Milstead a 53% favorite over Mike Rodriguez in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (55%).
Adam Milstead holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1630 to 1593, a 37-point edge.
Adam Milstead enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Adam Milstead finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Mike Rodriguez 100%.
Mike Rodriguez carries a 6-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.