Adionai Maciel vs Amir Aliev
Records, Elo, stats and the Combat Edge model read, side by side.
Combat Edge model read
Amir Aliev59%
Adionai Maciel 41%Elo baseline: 53%
The Combat Edge model makes Amir Aliev a 59% favorite over Adionai Maciel in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (53%).
Amir Aliev holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1649 to 1625, a 24-point edge.
Adionai Maciel enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Amir Aliev enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Adionai Maciel finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Amir Aliev 75%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Tale of the tape
11-2-0Record12-2-0
FlyweightDivisionBantamweight
TBDHeight5'8"
TBDReachTBD
125 lbsWeight136 lbs
DGT Luta LivreTeamFight Club Berkut· 1633 avg Elo · 12 rated
What's at stake
Amir Aliev is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Adionai Maciel carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+17→ 1642
If they lose-15→ 1610
If they win+15→ 1664
If they lose-17→ 1632
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1495 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1488 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Adionai MacielAmir Aliev