Amir Aliev vs Adionai Maciel

Nov 20, 2026 · UFC Fight Pass

Combat Edge model forecast53%Amir Aliev47%Adionai MacielFull forecast and your pick

DateNov 20, 2026

DivisionBantamweight

StatusScheduled

VenueAdidas Arena

BroadcastUFC Fight Pass

Start times & how to watch

Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Friday, November 20, 2026 — watch on UFC Fight Pass.

US East (ET): Fri 1:00 PM
US West (PT): Fri 10:00 AM
United Kingdom: Fri 6:00 PM
Central Europe: Fri 7:00 PM
Australia (Sydney): Sat 5:00 AM
Your time

Amir AlievAfgan |12-2-0Amir Aliev vs Adionai MacielAdionai MacielFeijao |11-2-0

Amir AlievAfgan12-2-0

Fight Overview

RoundTBD

TimeTBD

12-2-0Record11-2-0

27AgeTBD

5'8"HeightTBD

TBDReachTBD

136 lbsWeight125 lbs

BantamweightWeight ClassBantamweight

Adionai MacielFeijao11-2-0

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Amir Aliev owns a 24-point Elo edge (solid). Tracked UFC stat edges are limited for this matchup. There are no clean shared-opponent matches in tracked pro MMA history.

Compare Amir Aliev and Adionai Maciel across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Amir AlievAdionai Maciel

Recent form

Amir AlievW W W W L · +8 Elo last 5

WWWWL

Adionai MacielW W W W L · +62 Elo last 5

WWWWL

Elo edge

Amir Aliev1649+11 last move

Adionai Maciel1625+23 last move

Why they are ranked here

Amir Aliev#137 of 383 active Bantamweight fighters · 1649 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Kalysbek Saydibragim (rated 1500 at the time): +24.
Costliest loss: Lost to Argen Chyrakbaev (rated 1441 at the time): -41.
Last 5 fights: 4 wins, 1 loss, +8 Elo in total.
Next places: 1 point behind #136 Rafael do Nascimento, 1 ahead of #138 Baergeng Jieleyisi.

Adionai Maciel#94 of 232 active Flyweight fighters · 1625 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Enoque Silva (rated 1500 at the time): +29.
Costliest loss: Lost to Fernando Bonatto (rated 1458 at the time): -33.
Last 5 fights: 4 wins, 1 loss, +62 Elo in total.
Next places: 1 point behind #93 Ryohei Kurosawa, 1 ahead of #95 Jimmy Flick.

Every rated fight moves a rating by an amount set by the opponent's rating at the time, the result and how it ended. Places are counted among fighters active in the last 24 months. How the rating is calculated

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.8-2026-10-04

53%Amir Aliev47%Adionai Maciel

Model favoriteAmir Aliev

Elo baseline53% for Amir Aliev

Matchup adjustment0 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back Amir AlievStake

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model + Elo agree

Amir Aliev leads the full model at 53%. Elo agrees, and the complete matchup model softens that lean by 1 point.

Current Elo ratings1649 · 1625Amir Aliev leads by 24 rating points.

Recent opponent quality1488 · 1495Adionai Maciel faced the stronger recent schedule (10 vs 10 sampled fights).

Elo record depth14 · 10 fightsAmir Aliev has the deeper counted Elo history.

Largest tracked stat edgesNot enough comparable dataNo advantage is inferred when the underlying records are incomplete.

What's at stake

Amir AlievNow 1649 · #137 Bantamweight

Wins by decision+15→ 1664

Loses by decision-17→ 1632

Adionai MacielNow 1625 · #94 Flyweight

Wins by decision+17→ 1642

Loses by decision-15→ 1610

What-if simulatorPremium

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Projected with the same rules as the rankings, at today's ratings. Split decisions move ratings less and finishes more.

Stat advantages

Amir AlievvsAdionai Maciel

No tracked UFC stat edge yet.

Finishing profile

Amir AlievKO/TKO leads 33% of wins

Adionai MacielKO/TKO leads 45% of wins

Common opponents

No clean shared-opponent match found in tracked pro MMA history.

Tale of the tape

Amir AlievAdionai Maciel

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

Not availableSig. strikes landed per minNot available

UFC bantamweight average : 3.74

Not availableSig. strike accuracyNot available

UFC bantamweight average : 45%

Not availableSig. strikes absorbed per minNot available

UFC bantamweight average : 3.75

Not availableSig. strike defenseNot available

UFC bantamweight average : 54%

Not availableTakedown averageNot available

UFC bantamweight average : 1.51

Not availableTakedown accuracyNot available

UFC bantamweight average : 26%

Not availableTakedown defenseNot available

UFC bantamweight average : 60%

Not availableSubmission averageNot available

UFC bantamweight average : 0.53

4Wins by knockout5

2Wins by submission3

2Wins by decision4

0Losses by knockout0

1Losses by submission0

0Losses by decision2

Amir Aliev vs Adionai Maciel is a scheduled Bantamweight fight on ARES FC 45 : ZÉBO VS BAKI 2. Amir Aliev enters with a 12-2-0 record and Adionai Maciel enters with a 11-2-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.