Ahmed El Sisy vs Mohammad Fahmi
Records, Elo, stats and the Combat Edge model read, side by side.
Combat Edge model read
Mohammad Fahmi65%
Ahmed El Sisy 35%Elo baseline: 51%
The Combat Edge model makes Mohammad Fahmi a 65% favorite over Ahmed El Sisy in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1610 vs 1614), separated by just 4 points.
Ahmed El Sisy finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Mohammad Fahmi 71%.
Ahmed El Sisy and Mohammad Fahmi share 1 common opponent: Mohsen Mohammadseifi.
Mohammad Fahmi carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Tale of the tape
8-3-0Record5-1-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'8"Height5'11"
69"Reach72"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1626
If they lose-16→ 1594
If they win+24→ 1638
If they lose-24→ 1590
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1519 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1578 · 6 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Ahmed El SisyMohammad Fahmi
Win method breakdown
Common opponents (1)
LossDecision (Unanimous) · 2025
WinSubmission (Rear Naked Choke) · 2025