AJ McKee Jr. vs Alexander Volkanovski
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
25-2-0Record28-4-0
LightweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'10"Height5'6"
73"Reach71″
155 lbsWeight145 lbs
Team Bodyshop· 1649 avg Elo · 3 ratedTeamFreestyle Fighting Gym
What's at stake
Alexander Volkanovski is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — AJ McKee Jr. carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1852
If they lose-11→ 1828
If they win+11→ 1876
If they lose-13→ 1852
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1698 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1785 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
AJ McKee Jr.Alexander Volkanovski
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
AJ McKee Jr.60%
Alexander Volkanovski 40%Elo baseline: 46%
The Combat Edge model makes AJ McKee Jr. a 60% favorite over Alexander Volkanovski in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Alexander Volkanovski's way (46%).
Alexander Volkanovski holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1865 to 1839, a 26-point edge.
AJ McKee Jr. enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Alexander Volkanovski enters on a 2-fight win streak.
AJ McKee Jr. finishes 56% of wins inside the distance, Alexander Volkanovski 57%.
AJ McKee Jr. carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.