Model win probabilities for every bout on LFA 243: Maximov vs Santos (October 9, 2026), computed from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. Forecasts freeze before fight night and every result is graded on the public accuracy tracker. Analytics, not betting advice.
Close matchup50/50 baselineModel hit · Chris Chapa won
49.7%Willy LaMacchia50.3%Chris Chapa
Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 50% / 50%
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