AJ McKee Jr. vs Aljamain Sterling
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
Compare any two fighters →
Tale of the tape
25-2-0Record26-5-0
LightweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'10"Height5'7"
73"Reach71"
155 lbsWeight145 lbs
Team Bodyshop· 1649 avg Elo · 3 ratedTeamSerra-Longo Fight Team· 1771 avg Elo · 4 rated
What's at stake
Aljamain Sterling is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — AJ McKee Jr. carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1852
If they lose-11→ 1828
If they win+11→ 1867
If they lose-13→ 1843
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1698 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1780 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
AJ McKee Jr.Aljamain Sterling
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
AJ McKee Jr.60%
Aljamain Sterling 40%Elo baseline: 48%
The Combat Edge model makes AJ McKee Jr. a 60% favorite over Aljamain Sterling in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Aljamain Sterling's way (48%).
Aljamain Sterling holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1856 to 1839, a 17-point edge.
AJ McKee Jr. enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Aljamain Sterling enters on a 2-fight win streak.
AJ McKee Jr. finishes 56% of wins inside the distance, Aljamain Sterling 44%.
AJ McKee Jr. carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.