Combat Edge Model · Full card

ONE Samurai 5: Pacio vs Yamakita predictions

Model win probabilities for every bout on ONE Samurai 5: Pacio vs Yamakita (November 18, 2026), computed from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. Forecasts freeze before fight night and every result is graded on the public accuracy tracker. Analytics, not betting advice.

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10Total bouts

10Frozen forecasts

3Close matchups

0Model / Elo splits

1Strong model leans

OpenPicks close at start

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Scan every matchup, isolate close calls, or find where the full model and Elo baseline see different winners.

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Main card predictions

10 matchups · model probability, Elo baseline, fighter records, and your pick in one place.

Strawweight MMA World Championshipv0.8-2026-10-04

Joshua Pacio24-5-0

Keito Yamakita13-1-0

Close matchupModel + Elo agree

54%Joshua Pacio47%Keito Yamakita

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 52% / 48%

Strawweight Kickboxingv0.8-2026-10-04

Ryujin Nasukawa1-0-0

Raichi Nagai0-0-0

Model leanModel + Elo agree

67%Ryujin Nasukawa33%Raichi Nagai

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 54% / 46%

Strawweight MMAv0.8-2026-10-04

Tatsumitsu Wada26-14-2

Jarred Brooks21-6-0

Strong model leanModel + Elo agree

18%Tatsumitsu Wada82%Jarred Brooks

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 42% / 58%

Strawweight Kickboxingv0.8-2026-10-04

Masashi Kumura0-0-0

Ellis Barboza0-0-0

Close matchup50/50 baseline

55%Masashi Kumura45%Ellis Barboza

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 50% / 50%

Featherweight Kickboxingv0.8-2026-10-04

Yutaro Asahi0-0-0

Petchtanong Banchamek0-0-0

Model lean50/50 baseline

60%Yutaro Asahi40%Petchtanong Banchamek

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 50% / 50%

Heavyweight MMAv0.8-2026-10-04

Ryugo Takeuchi5-3-0

Brandon Hashimoto8-2-0

Close matchupModel + Elo agree

49.7%Ryugo Takeuchi50.3%Brandon Hashimoto

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 35% / 65%

Strawweight Muay Thaiv0.8-2026-10-04

Yugo Kato0-0-0

Jurai Ishii0-0-0

Model lean50/50 baseline

44%Yugo Kato56%Jurai Ishii

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 50% / 50%

Strawweight Kickboxingv0.8-2026-10-04

Reiji Takagi0-0-0

Rui Botelho0-0-0

Model lean50/50 baseline

58%Reiji Takagi42%Rui Botelho

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 50% / 50%

Bantamweight Kickboxingv0.8-2026-10-04

Gump0-0-0

Shuto Inui0-0-0

Model lean50/50 baseline

55%Gump45%Shuto Inui

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 50% / 50%

Featherweight MMAv0.8-2026-10-04

Shosuke Kinoshita13-7-1

Takuya Shibamura6-1-0

Model leanModel + Elo agree

40%Shosuke Kinoshita60%Takuya Shibamura

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 48% / 52%