AJ McKee Jr. vs Movsar Evloev
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
25-3-0Record20-0-0
LightweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'10"Height5'8"
73"Reach72"
155 lbsWeight145 lbs
Team Bodyshop· 1650 avg Elo · 3 ratedTeamAmerican Top Team
What's at stake
Movsar Evloev is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — AJ McKee Jr. carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1846
If they lose-11→ 1822
If they win+15→ 1876
If they lose-17→ 1844
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1713 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1715 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
AJ McKee Jr.Movsar Evloev
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Movsar Evloev56%
AJ McKee Jr. 44%Elo baseline: 54%
The Combat Edge model makes Movsar Evloev a 56% favorite over AJ McKee Jr. in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (54%).
Movsar Evloev holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1861 to 1833, a 28-point edge.
Movsar Evloev enters on a 10-fight win streak.
AJ McKee Jr. finishes 56% of wins inside the distance, Movsar Evloev 35%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.