Alan Gomes de Castro vs Marcello Morelli
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
16-8-1Record8-5-0
FeatherweightDivisionBantamweight
5'6"Height5'8"
-Reach-
137 lbsWeight135 lbs
Team Nogueira· 1595 avg Elo · 7 ratedTeamUniq Fight Club· 1579 avg Elo · 5 rated
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1568
If they lose-16→ 1536
If they win+16→ 1566
If they lose-16→ 1534
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1568 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1524 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Alan Gomes de CastroMarcello Morelli
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Alan Gomes de Castro66%
Marcello Morelli 34%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Alan Gomes de Castro a 66% favorite over Marcello Morelli in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1552 vs 1550), separated by just 2 points.
Marcello Morelli enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Alan Gomes de Castro finishes 63% of wins inside the distance, Marcello Morelli 63%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.