Alatengheili vs John Castañeda
Records, Elo, stats and the Combat Edge model read, side by side.
Combat Edge model read
John Castañeda71%
Alatengheili 29%Elo baseline: 60%
The Combat Edge model makes John Castañeda a 71% favorite over Alatengheili in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (60%).
John Castañeda holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1684 to 1613, a 71-point edge.
Alatengheili finishes 44% of wins inside the distance, John Castañeda 67%.
Alatengheili and John Castañeda share 1 common opponent: Chris Gutierrez.
John Castañeda carries a 5-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Tale of the tape
18-10-2Record21-9-1
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'6"Height5'7"
66"Reach71"
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
Fight ReadyTeamThe Academy
What's at stake
John Castañeda is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Alatengheili carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1627
If they lose-10→ 1603
If they win+10→ 1694
If they lose-14→ 1670
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1669 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1669 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
AlatengheiliJohn Castañeda