Alden Coria vs Alessandro Costa
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
13-3-0Record17-5-0
BantamweightDivisionFlyweight
5'8"Height5'5"
67"Reach67"
135 lbsWeight125 lbs
4oz. Fight Club· 1657 avg Elo · 6 ratedTeamLobo Gym MMA· 1703 avg Elo · 5 rated
What's at stake
Alessandro Costa is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Alden Coria carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+18→ 1687
If they lose-14→ 1655
If they win+14→ 1719
If they lose-18→ 1687
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1551 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1620 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Alden CoriaAlessandro Costa
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Alden Coria and Alessandro Costa within a point of even.
Alessandro Costa holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1705 to 1669, a 36-point edge.
Alden Coria enters on a 6-fight win streak.
Alessandro Costa enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Alden Coria finishes 69% of wins inside the distance, Alessandro Costa 82%.
Alden Coria and Alessandro Costa share 1 common opponent: Stewart Nicoll.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.