Aleksandra Savicheva vs Tatsumitsu Wada
Records, Elo, stats and the Combat Edge model read, side by side.
Combat Edge model read
Aleksandra Savicheva62%
Tatsumitsu Wada 38%Elo baseline: 48%
The Combat Edge model makes Aleksandra Savicheva a 62% favorite over Tatsumitsu Wada in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Tatsumitsu Wada's way (48%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1631 vs 1645), separated by just 14 points.
Aleksandra Savicheva enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Aleksandra Savicheva finishes 33% of wins inside the distance, Tatsumitsu Wada 38%.
Tatsumitsu Wada carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Tale of the tape
9-2-0Record26-14-2
StrawweightDivisionStrawweight
5'5"Height5'7"
66"Reach69.3"
115 lbsWeight135 lbs
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+17→ 1648
If they lose-15→ 1616
If they win+12→ 1657
If they lose-12→ 1633
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1532 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1528 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Aleksandra SavichevaTatsumitsu Wada