Aleksandre Topuria vs Colby Thicknesse
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
7-1-0Record9-1-0
FeatherweightDivisionFlyweight
5'7"Height5'9"
68"Reach69"
139 lbsWeight125 lbs
Climent ClubTeamFreestyle Fighting Gym
What's at stake
Colby Thicknesse is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Aleksandre Topuria carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+28→ 1641
If they lose-20→ 1593
If they win+14→ 1681
If they lose-18→ 1649
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1544 · 6 fightsPre-fight Elo1531 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Aleksandre TopuriaColby Thicknesse
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Colby Thicknesse60%
Aleksandre Topuria 40%Elo baseline: 58%
The Combat Edge model makes Colby Thicknesse a 60% favorite over Aleksandre Topuria in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (58%).
Colby Thicknesse holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1667 to 1613, a 54-point edge.
Aleksandre Topuria enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Colby Thicknesse enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Aleksandre Topuria finishes 71% of wins inside the distance, Colby Thicknesse 44%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.