Aleksei Oleinik vs Alistair Overeem
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
61-18-1Record47-19-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'2"Height6'4"
80"ReachTBD
254 lbsWeight256 lbs
Oleynik TeamTeamElevation Fight Team
What's at stake
Alistair Overeem is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Aleksei Oleinik carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1736
If they lose-11→ 1712
If they win+11→ 1771
If they lose-13→ 1747
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1646 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1729 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Aleksei OleinikAlistair Overeem
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Alistair Overeem73%
Aleksei Oleinik 27%Elo baseline: 55%
The Combat Edge model makes Alistair Overeem a 73% favorite over Aleksei Oleinik in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (55%).
Alistair Overeem holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1760 to 1723, a 37-point edge.
Aleksei Oleinik finishes 92% of wins inside the distance, Alistair Overeem 89%.
Aleksei Oleinik and Alistair Overeem share 2 common opponents: Fabrício Werdum and Walt Harris.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.