Aleksei Oleinik vs Fabrício Werdum
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
61-18-1Record24-10-1
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'2"Height6'4"
80"Reach45,0"
254 lbsWeight246 lbs
Oleynik TeamTeamWerdum Combat Team
What's at stake
Fabrício Werdum is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Aleksei Oleinik carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1738
If they lose-9→ 1714
If they win+9→ 1812
If they lose-15→ 1788
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1646 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1725 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Aleksei OleinikFabrício Werdum
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Fabrício Werdum78%
Aleksei Oleinik 22%Elo baseline: 61%
The Combat Edge model makes Fabrício Werdum a 78% favorite over Aleksei Oleinik in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (61%).
Fabrício Werdum holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1803 to 1723, a 80-point edge.
Aleksei Oleinik finishes 92% of wins inside the distance, Fabrício Werdum 75%.
Aleksei Oleinik and Fabrício Werdum share 1 common opponent: Walt Harris.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.