Alessandro Costa vs Cody Durden
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
16-5-0Record18-10-1
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'5"Height5'7"
67"Reach67"
125 lbsWeight135 lbs
Lobo Gym MMATeamAmerican Top Team Atlanta
What's at stake
Alessandro Costa is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Cody Durden carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1703
If they lose-18→ 1671
If they win+14→ 1651
If they lose-10→ 1627
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1605 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1673 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Alessandro CostaCody Durden
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Alessandro Costa73%
Cody Durden 27%Elo baseline: 57%
The Combat Edge model makes Alessandro Costa a 73% favorite over Cody Durden in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (57%).
Alessandro Costa holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1689 to 1637, a 52-point edge.
Alessandro Costa enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Alessandro Costa finishes 81% of wins inside the distance, Cody Durden 67%.
Alessandro Costa and Cody Durden share 1 common opponent: Matt Schnell.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.