Alessandro Costa vs Cody Durden
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
17-5-0Record18-11-1
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'5"Height5'7"
67"Reach67"
125 lbsWeight135 lbs
Lobo Gym MMA· 1703 avg Elo · 5 ratedTeamAmerican Top Team Atlanta
What's at stake
Alessandro Costa is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +12 while a loss costs more — Cody Durden carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+12→ 1717
If they lose-20→ 1685
If they win+15→ 1640
If they lose-9→ 1616
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1620 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1676 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Alessandro CostaCody Durden
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Alessandro Costa76%
Cody Durden 24%Elo baseline: 61%
The Combat Edge model makes Alessandro Costa a 76% favorite over Cody Durden in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (61%).
Alessandro Costa holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1705 to 1625, a 80-point edge.
Alessandro Costa enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Alessandro Costa finishes 82% of wins inside the distance, Cody Durden 67%.
Alessandro Costa and Cody Durden share 1 common opponent: Matt Schnell.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.