Cody Durden vs Alessandro Costa

Jul 11, 2026 · PARAMOUNT+

Combat Edge model forecast27%Cody Durden73%Alessandro CostaFull forecast

DateJul 11, 2026

DivisionFight card

StatusScheduled

VenueT-Mobile Arena

BroadcastPARAMOUNT+

Start times & how to watch

Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Saturday, July 11, 2026 — watch on PARAMOUNT+.

US East (ET): Sat 9:00 PM
US West (PT): Sat 6:00 PM
United Kingdom: Sun 2:00 AM
Central Europe: Sun 3:00 AM
Australia (Sydney): Sun 11:00 AM
Your time

Cody DurdenCustom Made |18-11-1Cody Durden vs Alessandro CostaAlessandro CostaNono |17-5-0

Cody DurdenCustom Made18-11-1

Fight Overview

RoundR3

Time5:00

18-11-1Record17-5-0

35Age30

5'7"Height5'5"

67"Reach67"

135 lbsWeight125 lbs

Fight cardWeight ClassFight card

Alessandro CostaNono17-5-0

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Alessandro Costa owns a 80-point Elo edge (good). Cody Durden shows more surface-level statistical edges across the tracked UFC categories. 3 shared opponents give extra context.

Compare Cody Durden and Alessandro Costa across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Cody DurdenAlessandro Costa

Recent form

Cody DurdenL W L L L · -38 Elo last 5

LWLLL

Alessandro CostaW W W L W · +46 Elo last 5

WWWLW

Elo edge

Cody Durden1625-12 last move

Alessandro Costa1705+16 last move

Why they are ranked here

Cody Durden#89 of 195 active Flyweight fighters · 1625 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Matt Schnell (rated 1643 at the time): +18.
Costliest loss: Lost to Bruno Silva (rated 1653 at the time): -21.
Last 5 fights: 1 win, 4 losses, -38 Elo in total.
Next places: 1 point behind #88 Ryohei Kurosawa, 1 ahead of #90 Kevin Borjas.

Alessandro Costa#20 of 195 active Flyweight fighters · 1705 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Kevin Borjas (rated 1648 at the time): +19.
Costliest loss: Lost to Alden Coria (rated 1615 at the time): -23.
Last 5 fights: 4 wins, 1 loss, +46 Elo in total.
Next places: 6 points behind #19 Brandon Royval, 1 ahead of #21 Amir Albazi.

Every rated fight moves a rating by an amount set by the opponent's rating at the time, the result and how it ended. Places are counted among fighters active in the last 24 months. How the rating is calculated

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v3-2026-06-10

27%Cody Durden73%Alessandro Costa

Model favoriteAlessandro Costa

Elo baseline57% for Alessandro Costa

Matchup adjustment+16 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back Alessandro CostaStake

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model + Elo agree

Alessandro Costa leads the full model at 73%. Elo agrees, and the complete matchup model strengthens that lean by 15 points.

Current Elo ratings1625 · 1705Alessandro Costa leads by 80 rating points.

Recent opponent quality1677 · 1620Cody Durden faced the stronger recent schedule (10 vs 10 sampled fights).

Elo record depth30 · 22 fightsCody Durden has the deeper counted Elo history.

Largest tracked stat edgesCody Durden 3 · 1 Alessandro CostaStrongest available gap: Takedown accuracy toward Cody Durden.

What's at stake

Cody DurdenNow 1625 · #89 Flyweight

Wins by decision+15→ 1640

Loses by decision-9→ 1616

Alessandro CostaNow 1705 · #20 Flyweight

Wins by decision+12→ 1717

Loses by decision-20→ 1685

What-if simulatorPremium

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Projected with the same rules as the rankings, at today's ratings. Split decisions move ratings less and finishes more.

Stat advantages

Cody DurdenvsAlessandro Costa

Takedown accuracy

10%vs0%

Takedown average

3.99vs0.77

Takedown defense

57%vs86%

Submission average

0.65vs0.38

Finishing profile

Cody DurdenKO/TKO leads 33% of wins

Alessandro CostaKO/TKO leads 41% of wins

Common opponents

Matt Schnell Cody Durden: win · Submission (Ninja Choke) · Sep 7, 2024 Alessandro Costa: win · TKO (punches) · Jun 6, 2026

Matt Schnell Cody Durden: win · Submission (Ninja Choke) · Sep 7, 2024Alessandro Costa: cancelled · Cancelled Bout · Sep 7, 2024

Jimmy Flick Cody Durden: loss · Submission (Flying Triangle Choke) · Dec 19, 2020 Alessandro Costa: win · TKO (Elbows) · Jun 17, 2023

Tale of the tape

Cody DurdenAlessandro Costa

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

3.24Sig. strikes landed per min3.86

UFC flyweight average : 3.95

45Sig. strike accuracy47

UFC flyweight average : 44%

3.94Sig. strikes absorbed per min3.70

UFC flyweight average : 3.88

51Sig. strike defense57

UFC flyweight average : 55%

3.99Takedown average0.77

UFC flyweight average : 1.44

10Takedown accuracy0

UFC flyweight average : 26%

57Takedown defense86

UFC flyweight average : 57%

0.65Submission average0.38

UFC flyweight average : 0.61

6Wins by knockout7

6Wins by submission7

6Wins by decision3

2Losses by knockout3

6Losses by submission0

3Losses by decision2

Cody Durden vs Alessandro Costa is a scheduled Fight card fight on UFC 329 : MCGREGOR VS HOLLOWAY 2. Cody Durden enters with a 18-11-1 record and Alessandro Costa enters with a 17-5-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.