Alessandro Costa vs Matt Schnell
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
17-5-0Record17-11-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'5"Height5'8"
67"Reach70"
125 lbsWeight135 lbs
Lobo Gym MMATeamFortis MMA
What's at stake
Alessandro Costa is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +12 while a loss costs more — Matt Schnell carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+12→ 1717
If they lose-20→ 1685
If they win+15→ 1621
If they lose-9→ 1597
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1619 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1674 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Alessandro CostaMatt Schnell
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Alessandro Costa92%
Matt Schnell 8%Elo baseline: 64%
The Combat Edge model makes Alessandro Costa a 92% favorite over Matt Schnell in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (64%).
Alessandro Costa holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1705 to 1606, a 99-point edge.
Alessandro Costa enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Matt Schnell enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Alessandro Costa finishes 82% of wins inside the distance, Matt Schnell 69%.
Alessandro Costa and Matt Schnell share 3 common opponents: Cody Durden, Steve Erceg and Jimmy Flick.
Matt Schnell carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.