Combat Edge Intelligence

Alessio Di Chirico vs Garreth McLellan

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

13-7-0Record13-7-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'0"Height6'1"
74"Reach72,0"
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Gloria Fight CenterTeamFightFit Militia

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Alessio Di ChiricoNow 1581
If they win+16→ 1597
If they lose-16→ 1565
Garreth McLellanNow 1583
If they win+16→ 1599
If they lose-16→ 1567

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1655 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1573 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.32
Sig. strikes / min
3.56
40%
Strike accuracy
54%
3.44
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.94
62%
Strike defense
45%
1.46
Takedown avg.
1.15
39%
Takedown accuracy
22%
83%
Takedown defense
35%
0
Submission avg.
0.86

Trajectory

Alessio Di ChiricoGarreth McLellan
1600201720182019202020212022

Win method breakdown

6 (46%)
KO/TKO
3 (23%)
4 (31%)
Submission
9 (69%)
3 (23%)
Decision
1 (8%)

Combat Edge model read

Alessio Di Chirico60%
Garreth McLellan 40%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Alessio Di Chirico a 60% favorite over Garreth McLellan in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Garreth McLellan's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1581 vs 1583), separated by just 2 points.

Alessio Di Chirico enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Garreth McLellan enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Alessio Di Chirico finishes 77% of wins inside the distance, Garreth McLellan 92%.

Alessio Di Chirico carries a 2-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.