Alex Caceres vs Austin Springer
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
21-15-0Record12-4-0
FeatherweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'8"
73,5"Reach38,0"
145 lbsWeight151 lbs
MMA LabTeamVancouver Elite Martial Arts
What's at stake
Alex Caceres is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Austin Springer carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+11→ 1662
If they lose-13→ 1638
If they win+18→ 1636
If they lose-14→ 1604
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1648 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1563 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Alex CaceresAustin Springer
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Austin Springer57%
Alex Caceres 43%Elo baseline: 45%
The Combat Edge model makes Austin Springer a 57% favorite over Alex Caceres in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Alex Caceres's way (45%).
Alex Caceres holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1651 to 1618, a 33-point edge.
Alex Caceres enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Alex Caceres finishes 52% of wins inside the distance, Austin Springer 75%.
Alex Caceres and Austin Springer share 2 common opponents: Giga Chikadze and Julian Erosa.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.