Alex Caceres vs Julian Erosa
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
21-15-0Record31-13-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'9"Height6'1"
73,5"Reach74"
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
MMA LabTeamXtreme Couture
What's at stake
Julian Erosa is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Alex Caceres carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1665
If they lose-10→ 1641
If they win+10→ 1705
If they lose-14→ 1681
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1648 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1672 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Alex CaceresJulian Erosa
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Julian Erosa70%
Alex Caceres 30%Elo baseline: 56%
The Combat Edge model makes Julian Erosa a 70% favorite over Alex Caceres in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).
Julian Erosa holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1695 to 1651, a 44-point edge.
Alex Caceres enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Julian Erosa enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Alex Caceres finishes 52% of wins inside the distance, Julian Erosa 84%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.