Alex Morgan vs Nilton Gavião
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
18-7-0Record17-8-0
FeatherweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'8"
71"Reach-
146 lbsWeight151 lbs
Tristar GymTeamSombra Team
What's at stake
Alex Morgan is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Nilton Gavião carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+9→ 1653
If they lose-15→ 1629
If they win+20→ 1567
If they lose-12→ 1535
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1500 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1501 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Alex MorganNilton Gavião
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Alex Morgan64%
Nilton Gavião 36%Elo baseline: 64%
The Combat Edge model makes Alex Morgan a 64% favorite over Nilton Gavião in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (64%).
Alex Morgan holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1644 to 1547, a 97-point edge.
Alex Morgan enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Nilton Gavião enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Alex Morgan finishes 61% of wins inside the distance, Nilton Gavião 59%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.