SAMOURAI MMA 21 : DUFORT VS CHAPUT

Alex Morgan vs Nilton Gavião

EventSAMOURAI MMA 21 : DUFORT VS CHAPUT
DateSep 4, 2026
StatusScheduled
VenueColisee De Laval
BroadcastUFC FIGHT PASS
Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Friday, September 4, 2026 — watch on UFC FIGHT PASS.

US East (ET)
Fri 7:00 PM
US West (PT)
Fri 4:00 PM
United Kingdom
Sat 12:00 AM
Central Europe
Sat 1:00 AM
Australia (Sydney)
Sat 9:00 AM

Alex Morgan vs Nilton Gavião is a scheduled Featherweight fight on SAMOURAI MMA 21 : DUFORT VS CHAPUT. Alex Morgan enters with a 18-7-0 record and Nilton Gavião enters with a 17-8-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.

Alex Morgan vs Nilton Gavião quick answers

When is Alex Morgan vs Nilton Gavião?

Alex Morgan vs Nilton Gavião is listed for SAMOURAI MMA 21 : DUFORT VS CHAPUT on Sep 4, 2026 at 7:00 PM EST.

What event is Alex Morgan vs Nilton Gavião on?

Alex Morgan vs Nilton Gavião is listed on SAMOURAI MMA 21 : DUFORT VS CHAPUT.

What are the records for Alex Morgan vs Nilton Gavião?

Alex Morgan enters with a 18-7-0 record and Nilton Gavião enters with a 17-8-0 record.

What division is Alex Morgan vs Nilton Gavião?

Alex Morgan vs Nilton Gavião is listed as a Featherweight fight.

Alex MorganThe Chess Master |18-7-0Alex Morgan vs Nilton GaviãoNilton Gavião17-8-0
caAlex MorganThe Chess Master18-7-0Alex Morganca

Fight Overview

RoundTBD
TimeTBD
18-7-0Record17-8-0
35Age38
5'10"Height5'8"
71"Reach-
146 lbsWeight151 lbs
FeatherweightWeight ClassFeatherweight
brNilton Gavião17-8-0brNilton Gavião
Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Alex Morgan owns a 97-point Elo edge (solid). Tracked UFC stat edges are limited for this matchup. There are no clean shared-opponent matches in tracked pro MMA history.

Compare Alex Morgan and Nilton Gavião across their careers →

Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Alex MorganNilton Gavião
155016001650202420252026

Recent form

Alex MorganW W W W L · +17 Elo last 5
WWWWL
Nilton GaviãoL L L W W · -34 Elo last 5
LLLWW

Elo edge

Alex Morgan1644+12 last move
Nilton Gavião1547-18 last move
Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.7-2026-08-28
59%Alex Morgan41%Nilton Gavião
Model favoriteAlex Morgan
Elo baseline64% for Alex Morgan
Matchup adjustment-5 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

Sponsored — betting partner link. 19+ (18+ where permitted). Please play responsibly.

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model + Elo agree

Alex Morgan leads the full model at 59%. Elo agrees, and the complete matchup model softens that lean by 4 points.

Current Elo ratings1644 · 1547Alex Morgan leads by 97 rating points.
Recent opponent quality1500 · 1501Nilton Gavião faced the stronger recent schedule (10 vs 10 sampled fights).
Elo record depth25 · 15 fightsAlex Morgan has the deeper counted Elo history.
Largest tracked stat edgesNot enough comparable dataNo advantage is inferred when the underlying records are incomplete.

Stat advantages

Alex MorganvsNilton Gavião

No tracked UFC stat edge yet.

Finishing profile

Alex MorganKO/TKO leads 56% of wins
Nilton Gaviãodecision leads 41% of wins

Common opponents

No clean shared-opponent match found in tracked pro MMA history.

Tale of the tape

Alex MorganNilton Gavião
0Sig. strikes landed per min0
UFC featherweight average : 3.97
0Sig. strike accuracy0
UFC featherweight average : 47%
0Sig. strikes absorbed per min0
UFC featherweight average : 3.85
0Sig. strike defense0
UFC featherweight average : 54%
0Takedown average0
UFC featherweight average : 1.57
0Takedown accuracy0
UFC featherweight average : 31%
0Takedown defense0
UFC featherweight average : 55%
0Submission average0
UFC featherweight average : 0.62
10Wins by knockout6
1Wins by submission4
7Wins by decision7
0Losses by knockout2
5Losses by submission1
2Losses by decision5

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