Combat Edge Intelligence

Alex Nicholson vs Bryan Barberena

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

19-11-0Record18-12-0
HeavyweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'4"Height6'0"
81,0"Reach72"
224 lbsWeight185 lbs
American Top Team OrlandoTeamGym-O

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Alex NicholsonNow 1630
If they win+12→ 1642
If they lose-12→ 1618
Bryan BarberenaNow 1627
If they win+12→ 1639
If they lose-12→ 1615

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1577 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1675 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.12
Sig. strikes / min
5.35
44%
Strike accuracy
48%
4.65
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.59
47%
Strike defense
44%
0
Takedown avg.
0.13
TBD
Takedown accuracy
22%
50%
Takedown defense
50%
0.53
Submission avg.
0.27

Trajectory

Alex NicholsonBryan Barberena
160016501700202220232024

Win method breakdown

17 (89%)
KO/TKO
11 (61%)
2 (11%)
Submission
2 (11%)
0 (0%)
Decision
5 (28%)

Combat Edge model read

The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Alex Nicholson and Bryan Barberena within a point of even.

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1630 vs 1627), separated by just 3 points.

Alex Nicholson enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Bryan Barberena enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Alex Nicholson finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Bryan Barberena 72%.

Alex Nicholson carries a 9-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.