Alex Nicholson vs Ozzy Diaz
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
19-11-0Record10-4-0
HeavyweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'4"Height6'4"
81,0"Reach79"
224 lbsWeight185 lbs
American Top Team OrlandoTeamCalifornia Mixed Martial Arts
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1642
If they lose-12→ 1618
If they win+16→ 1643
If they lose-16→ 1611
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1577 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1572 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Alex NicholsonOzzy Diaz
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Ozzy Diaz60%
Alex Nicholson 40%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Ozzy Diaz a 60% favorite over Alex Nicholson in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Alex Nicholson's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1630 vs 1627), separated by just 3 points.
Alex Nicholson enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Alex Nicholson finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Ozzy Diaz 90%.
Alex Nicholson carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.