Alex Pereira vs Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
13-4-0Record34-10-1
Light HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'4"Height6'3"
79"Reach77"
205 lbsWeight240 lbs
Teixeira MMA & FitnessTeamTeam Nogueira
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+17→ 1804
If they lose-15→ 1772
If they win+12→ 1812
If they lose-12→ 1788
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1806 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1685 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Alex PereiraAntônio Rodrigo Nogueira
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Alex Pereira79%
Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira 21%Elo baseline: 48%
The Combat Edge model makes Alex Pereira a 79% favorite over Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira's way (48%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1787 vs 1800), separated by just 13 points.
Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Alex Pereira finishes 85% of wins inside the distance, Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira 71%.
Alex Pereira carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.