Alex Pereira vs Jan Błachowicz
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
13-4-0Record29-11-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'4"Height6'2"
79"Reach78"
205 lbsWeight205 lbs
Teixeira MMA & FitnessTeamWCA Fight Team
What's at stake
Alex Pereira is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Jan Błachowicz carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1801
If they lose-18→ 1769
If they win+13→ 1761
If they lose-11→ 1737
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1806 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1765 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Alex PereiraJan Błachowicz
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Alex Pereira73%
Jan Błachowicz 27%Elo baseline: 56%
The Combat Edge model makes Alex Pereira a 73% favorite over Jan Błachowicz in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).
Alex Pereira holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1787 to 1748, a 39-point edge.
Alex Pereira finishes 85% of wins inside the distance, Jan Błachowicz 62%.
Alex Pereira and Jan Błachowicz share 2 common opponents: Magomed Ankalaev and Israel Adesanya.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.