Alex Pereira vs Magomed Ankalaev
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
13-4-0Record21-2-1
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'4"Height6'3"
79"Reach75"
205 lbsWeight205 lbs
Teixeira MMA & Fitness· 1664 avg Elo · 5 ratedTeamGorets Fight Club· 1716 avg Elo · 5 rated
What's at stake
Magomed Ankalaev is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +13 while a loss costs more — Alex Pereira carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+19→ 1806
If they lose-13→ 1774
If they win+13→ 1861
If they lose-19→ 1829
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1804 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1731 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Alex PereiraMagomed Ankalaev
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Magomed Ankalaev75%
Alex Pereira 25%Elo baseline: 59%
The Combat Edge model makes Magomed Ankalaev a 75% favorite over Alex Pereira in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (59%).
Magomed Ankalaev holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1848 to 1787, a 61-point edge.
Alex Pereira finishes 85% of wins inside the distance, Magomed Ankalaev 52%.
Alex Pereira and Magomed Ankalaev share 1 common opponent: Jan Błachowicz.
Alex Pereira carries a 4-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.