Alex Perez vs Matheus Nicolau
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
26-10-0Record19-5-1
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'6"Height5'6"
65"Reach66"
125 lbsWeight125 lbs
Team Oyama· 1645 avg Elo · 6 ratedTeamNova Uniao
What's at stake
Alex Perez is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Matheus Nicolau carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+10→ 1717
If they lose-14→ 1693
If they win+18→ 1680
If they lose-14→ 1648
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1726 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1643 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Alex PerezMatheus Nicolau
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Alex Perez66%
Matheus Nicolau 34%Elo baseline: 56%
The Combat Edge model makes Alex Perez a 66% favorite over Matheus Nicolau in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).
Alex Perez holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1707 to 1662, a 45-point edge.
Matheus Nicolau enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Alex Perez finishes 54% of wins inside the distance, Matheus Nicolau 53%.
Alex Perez and Matheus Nicolau share 1 common opponent: Asu Almabayev.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.