Alex Reyes vs Tom Nolan
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
13-5-0Record11-1-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'11"Height6'2"
73"Reach73"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Cage Combat AcademyTeamTeam Compton Training Centre
What's at stake
Tom Nolan is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Alex Reyes carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+21→ 1628
If they lose-11→ 1596
If they win+11→ 1737
If they lose-21→ 1705
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1543 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1605 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Alex ReyesTom Nolan
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Tom Nolan89%
Alex Reyes 11%Elo baseline: 66%
The Combat Edge model makes Tom Nolan a 89% favorite over Alex Reyes in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (66%).
Tom Nolan holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1726 to 1607, a 119-point edge.
Alex Reyes enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Tom Nolan enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Alex Reyes finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Tom Nolan 55%.
Alex Reyes and Tom Nolan share 1 common opponent: Charlie Campbell.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.