Combat Edge Intelligence

Alexa Grasso vs Carla Esparza

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

17-5-1Record19-8-0
FlyweightDivisionStrawweight
5'5"Height5'1"
66"Reach63"
125 lbsWeight115 lbs
Lobo Gym MMATeamTeam Oyama

What's at stake

Alexa Grasso is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +13 while a loss costs more — Carla Esparza carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Alexa GrassoNow 1715
If they win+13→ 1728
If they lose-19→ 1696
Carla EsparzaNow 1657
If they win+19→ 1676
If they lose-13→ 1644

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1715 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1692 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.11
Sig. strikes / min
2.19
41%
Strike accuracy
39%
3.73
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.87
58%
Strike defense
54%
0.41
Takedown avg.
3.28
35%
Takedown accuracy
36%
55%
Takedown defense
47%
0.61
Submission avg.
0.27

Trajectory

Alexa GrassoCarla Esparza
165017002023202420252026

Win method breakdown

5 (29%)
KO/TKO
4 (21%)
2 (12%)
Submission
4 (21%)
10 (59%)
Decision
11 (58%)

Combat Edge model read

Alexa Grasso79%
Carla Esparza 21%Elo baseline: 58%

The Combat Edge model makes Alexa Grasso a 79% favorite over Carla Esparza in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (58%).

Alexa Grasso holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1715 to 1657, a 58-point edge.

Carla Esparza enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Alexa Grasso finishes 41% of wins inside the distance, Carla Esparza 42%.

Alexa Grasso carries a 3-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.