Alexa Grasso vs Felice Herrig
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
18-5-1Record14-10-0
FlyweightDivisionStrawweight
5'5"Height5'4"
66"Reach65"
125 lbsWeight115 lbs
Lobo Gym MMA· 1722 avg Elo · 4 ratedTeamTeam Curran
What's at stake
Alexa Grasso is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Felice Herrig carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+9→ 1741
If they lose-23→ 1709
If they win+23→ 1579
If they lose-9→ 1547
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1729 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1624 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Alexa GrassoFelice Herrig
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Alexa Grasso87%
Felice Herrig 13%Elo baseline: 73%
The Combat Edge model makes Alexa Grasso a 87% favorite over Felice Herrig in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (73%).
Alexa Grasso holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1732 to 1556, a 176-point edge.
Alexa Grasso enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Felice Herrig enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Alexa Grasso finishes 39% of wins inside the distance, Felice Herrig 36%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.