Combat Edge Intelligence

Alexa Grasso vs Felice Herrig

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →

Tale of the tape

17-5-1Record14-10-0
FlyweightDivisionStrawweight
5'5"Height5'4"
66"Reach65"
125 lbsWeight115 lbs
Lobo Gym MMATeamTeam Curran

What's at stake

Alexa Grasso is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Felice Herrig carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Alexa GrassoNow 1715
If they win+9→ 1724
If they lose-23→ 1692
Felice HerrigNow 1556
If they win+23→ 1579
If they lose-9→ 1547

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1715 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1624 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.11
Sig. strikes / min
3.84
41%
Strike accuracy
38%
3.73
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
5.19
58%
Strike defense
48%
0.41
Takedown avg.
1.08
35%
Takedown accuracy
29%
55%
Takedown defense
75%
0.61
Submission avg.
0.81

Trajectory

Alexa GrassoFelice Herrig
1550160016501700202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

5 (29%)
KO/TKO
1 (7%)
2 (12%)
Submission
4 (29%)
10 (59%)
Decision
9 (64%)

Combat Edge model read

Alexa Grasso87%
Felice Herrig 13%Elo baseline: 71%

The Combat Edge model makes Alexa Grasso a 87% favorite over Felice Herrig in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (71%).

Alexa Grasso holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1715 to 1556, a 159-point edge.

Felice Herrig enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Alexa Grasso finishes 41% of wins inside the distance, Felice Herrig 36%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.