Alexa Grasso vs Natália Silva
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
18-5-1Record21-5-1
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'5"Height5'5"
66"Reach65"
125 lbsWeight125 lbs
Lobo Gym MMA· 1725 avg Elo · 4 ratedTeamTeam Borracha
What's at stake
Natália Silva is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Alexa Grasso carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+17→ 1749
If they lose-15→ 1717
If they win+15→ 1775
If they lose-17→ 1743
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1728 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1647 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Alexa GrassoNatália Silva
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Natália Silva67%
Alexa Grasso 33%Elo baseline: 54%
The Combat Edge model makes Natália Silva a 67% favorite over Alexa Grasso in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (54%).
Natália Silva holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1760 to 1732, a 28-point edge.
Alexa Grasso enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Natália Silva enters on a 10-fight win streak.
Alexa Grasso finishes 39% of wins inside the distance, Natália Silva 60%.
Alexa Grasso and Natália Silva share 1 common opponent: Viviane Araujo.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.