Alexa Grasso vs Natália Silva
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
17-5-1Record20-5-1
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'5"Height5'5"
66"Reach65"
125 lbsWeight125 lbs
Lobo Gym MMATeamTeam Borracha
What's at stake
Natália Silva is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Alexa Grasso carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+17→ 1732
If they lose-15→ 1700
If they win+15→ 1761
If they lose-17→ 1729
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1715 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1627 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Alexa GrassoNatália Silva
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Natália Silva56%
Alexa Grasso 44%Elo baseline: 54%
The Combat Edge model makes Natália Silva a 56% favorite over Alexa Grasso in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (54%).
Natália Silva holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1746 to 1715, a 31-point edge.
Natália Silva enters on a 10-fight win streak.
Alexa Grasso finishes 41% of wins inside the distance, Natália Silva 63%.
Alexa Grasso and Natália Silva share 1 common opponent: Viviane Araujo.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.