Alexa Grasso vs Valentina Shevchenko
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
17-5-1Record26-4-1
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'5"Height5'5"
66"Reach66"
125 lbsWeight125 lbs
Lobo Gym MMA· 1703 avg Elo · 5 ratedTeamTiger Muay Thai
What's at stake
Valentina Shevchenko is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Alexa Grasso carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+21→ 1736
If they lose-11→ 1704
If they win+8→ 1842
If they lose-16→ 1818
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1715 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1714 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Alexa GrassoValentina Shevchenko
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Valentina Shevchenko68%
Alexa Grasso 32%Elo baseline: 66%
The Combat Edge model makes Valentina Shevchenko a 68% favorite over Alexa Grasso in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (66%).
Valentina Shevchenko holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1834 to 1715, a 119-point edge.
Valentina Shevchenko enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Alexa Grasso finishes 41% of wins inside the distance, Valentina Shevchenko 58%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.